Saturday, October 25, 2008

Here the people rule

Bill Kristol wrote an interesting New York Times column for the October 20, 2008 edition of that paper. It is titled Here the people rule. It focuses on McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his Vice Presidential running mate, but also makes a larger point about elites, the public and representative democracy. Here it is in its entirety.
Here the People Rule

By William Kristol

According to the silver-penned Peggy Noonan, writing in The Wall Street Journal over the weekend, “In the end the Palin candidacy is a symptom and expression of a new vulgarization in American politics.”

Leave aside Noonan’s negative judgment on Sarah Palin’s candidacy, a judgment I don’t share. Are we really seeing “a new vulgarization in American politics”? As opposed to the good old non-vulgar days?

Politics in a democracy are always “vulgar” — since democracy is rule by the “vulgus,” the common people, the crowd. Many conservatives have never been entirely comfortable with this rather important characteristic of democracy. Conservatives’ hearts have always beaten a little faster when they read Horace’s famous line: “Odi profanum vulgus et arceo.” “I hate the ignorant crowd and I keep them at a distance.”

But is the ignorant crowd really our problem today? Are populism and anti-intellectualism rampant in the land? Does the common man too thoroughly dominate our national life? I don’t think so.

Last week, the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press released its latest national survey, taken from Oct. 9 to 12. Americans are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country and of course concerned about the economy. But, as Pew summarized, “there is little indication that the nation’s financial crisis has triggered public panic or despair.”

In fact, “There is a broad public consensus regarding the causes of the current problems with financial institutions and markets: 79 percent say people taking on too much debt has contributed a lot to the crisis, while 72 percent say the same about banks making risky loans.”

This seems sensible. Indeed, as Sept. 11 did not result in a much-feared (by intellectuals) wave of popular Islamophobia or xenophobia, so the market crash has resulted in remarkably little popular hysteria or scapegoating.

And considering what has happened, the vulgar public on Main Street has been surprisingly forgiving of those well-educated types on Wall Street — the ones who devised and marketed the sophisticated financial instruments that have brought the financial system to the brink of collapse.

Most of the recent mistakes of American public policy, and most of the contemporary delusions of American public life, haven’t come from an ignorant and excitable public. They’ve been produced by highly educated and sophisticated elites.

Needless to say, the public’s not always right, and public opinion’s not always responsible. But as publics go, the American public has a pretty good track record.

In the 1930s, the American people didn’t fall — unlike so many of their supposed intellectual betters — for either fascism or Communism. Since World War II, the American people have resisted the temptations of isolationism and protectionism, and have turned their backs on a history of bigotry.

Now, the Pew poll I cited earlier also showed Barack Obama holding a 50 percent to 40 percent lead over John McCain in the race for the White House. You might think this data point poses a challenge to my encomium to the good sense of the American people.

It does. But it’s hard to blame the public for preferring Obama at this stage — given the understandable desire to kick the Republicans out of the White House, and given the failure of the McCain campaign to make its case effectively. And some number of the public may change their minds in the final two weeks of the campaign, and may decide McCain-Palin offers a better kind of change — perhaps enough to give McCain-Palin a victory.

The media elites really hate that idea. Not just because so many of them prefer Obama. But because they like telling us what’s going to happen. They’re always annoyed when the people cross them up. Pundits spent all spring telling Hillary Clinton to give up in her contest against Obama — and the public kept on ignoring them and keeping her hopes alive.

Why do elites like to proclaim premature closure — not just in elections, but also in wars and in social struggles? Because it makes them the imperial arbiters, or at least the perspicacious announcers, of what history is going to bring. This puts the elite prognosticators ahead of the curve, ahead of the simple-minded people who might entertain the delusion that they still have a choice.

But as Gerald Ford said after assuming the presidency on Aug. 9, 1974, ”Here the people rule.”

One of those people is Joe Wurzelbacher, a k a Joe the Plumber. He’s the latest ordinary American to do a star turn in our vulgar democratic circus. He seems like a sensible man to me.

And to Peggy Noonan, who wrote that Joe “in an extended cable interview Thursday made a better case for the Republican ticket than the Republican ticket has made.” At least McCain and Palin have had the good sense to embrace him. I join them in taking my stand with Joe the Plumber — in defiance of Horace the Poet.

Friday, October 24, 2008

McCain v Obama polling part 7

The current week being surveyed is October 20th through October 24th.

Gallup Tracking* - 10/21 thru 10/23 - 2406/2365 LV - McCain 44 - Obama 50
Hotline/FD Tracking - 10/21 thru 10/23 - 766 LV - McCain 43 - Obama 50
Rasmussen Tracking - 10/21 thru 10/23 - 3000 LV - McCain 45 - Obama 52
Reuters/C-Span/Zogby - 10/21 thru 10/23 - 1203 LV - McCain 41 - Obama 51

* Average of Gallup's two voter screens for likely voters.

Current average - McCain 43.00 - Obama 51.00 - Net + 8.00 Obama
Week 6 average - McCain 44.25 - Obama 49.25 - Net + 5.00 Obama
Week 5 average - McCain 41.86 - Obama 49.43 - Net + 7.57 Obama
Week 4 average - McCain 43.50 - Obama 49.50 - Net + 6.00 Obama
Week 3 average - McCain 42.80 - Obama 48.20 - Net + 5.40 Obama
Week 2 average - McCain 45.33 - Obama 47.33 - Net + 2.00 Obama
Week 1 average - McCain 46.50 - Obama 45.25 – Net + 1.25 McCain

Saturday, October 18, 2008

McCain v Obama polling part 6

The current week being surveyed is October 13th through October 17th.

Gallup Tracking* - 10/14 thru 10/16 - 2155/2314 LV - McCain 46 - Obama 50
Hotline/FD Tracking - 10/15 thru 10/17 - 797 LV - McCain 42 - Obama 49
Rasmussen Tracking - 10/15 thru 10/17 - 3000 LV - McCain 45 - Obama 50
Reuters/C-Span/Zogby - 10/15 thru 10/17 - 1210 LV - McCain 44 - Obama 48

* Average of Gallup's two voter screens for likely voters.

Current average - McCain 44.25 - Obama 49.25 - Net + 5.00 Obama
Week 5 average - McCain 41.86 - Obama 49.43 - Net + 7.57 Obama
Week 4 average - McCain 43.50 - Obama 49.50 - Net + 6.00 Obama
Week 3 average - McCain 42.80 - Obama 48.20 - Net + 5.40 Obama
Week 2 average - McCain 45.33 - Obama 47.33 - Net + 2.00 Obama
Week 1 average - McCain 46.50 - Obama 45.25 – Net + 1.25 McCain

David Frum and Conservatism

It's hard to understand what would be left of conservatism if David Frum had his way and supply-side economics was no longer a central part of the conservative movement. In this column David Frum's Weird Attach, James Pethokoukis discusses Frum's disagreements with Larry Kudlow.
..... Frum's "facts" are wrong. Moreover, I think he has misjudged terribly the actual performance of the U.S. economy during the past eight years and should probably buy Kudlow dinner in Manhattan as penance. Frum's economic errors are many, but probably fairly common among readers of the New York Times. I will attempt to briefly dispel at least some of them.

1) Workers' incomes have been stagnant for years. Wrong! According to economist Ed Yardeni, average real pretax earned income per worker rose to a record high of $48,957 in April and is up 11 percent since January 2001, when President Bush took office. Now I'm not sure what those numbers have done lately with the slowing economy and credit crunch (more on that later), but the economic pessimists have been complaining for years about workers continually falling ever further behind. And remember, this measure does not include benefits. Plus, many estimates of real income or real wages skew lower because of the inaccurate way the government measures inflation, overstating it by two thirds of a percentage point (says economist Michael Boskin) to almost a full point (says the Labor Department) every year.

2) Income inequality has exploded. Wrong! More and more research is revealing that the supposed rise in income inequality is a bit of a crock. One reason is the "China Effect." A recent University of Chicago study found official income inequality statistics fail to take into account that lower-income Americans tend to consume more inexpensive Asian goods. As the study's authors conclude, "This price effect offsets almost all the rise in inequality measured by official statistics." And whatever slight rise in inequality that's left over can easily be explained by technology and the expanded global market for CEO talent.

3) The fundamentals of the economy are weak. Wrong! There is way more to the U.S. economy than Wall Street. Did you know that the World Economic Forum, the Davos folks, for the second straight year judged the United States as possessing the most competitive economy in the world? (Then came Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, and Singapore.) Among America's strengths: innovation, flexible labor markets, and higher education. And remember, the core U.S. economy is in far better shape than it was in the 1970s. Productivity, the key measure of an economy's strength, consistently grew at less than 2 percent in the 1970s and stayed weak until the tax cuts, deregulation, inflation fighting, and corporate restructuring of the 1980s blossomed into the tech and productivity boom in the 1990s and beyond. Productivity has averaged about 2 percent since 1995 and is now running closer to 3 percent year over year, including 4.3 percent in the second quarter.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Election Predictions

Here is my prediction regarding the Obama versus McCain presidential race and the US Senate races:

Electoral Votes:
Obama - 349
McCain - 189

States:
Obama - 27 + Washington DC
McCain - 23

Popular Vote Percentage:
Obama - 52.41 pct
McCain - 46.66 pct
Obama plurality - 5.75 pct

States voting for Obama that voted for Bush in 2004:
Colorado (9), Florida (27), Iowa (7), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20), Virginia (13)

US Senate Seats changing from Republican to Democrat:
Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Alaska, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oregon.

US Senate balance of power for 2009-2010:
Democrats - 58
Republicans - 41
Independent (Lieberman) - 1

Friday, October 10, 2008

McCain v Obama polling part 5

The current week being surveyed is October 6th through October 10th.

Newsweek - 10/8 thru 10/9 - 1035 RV - McCain 41 - Obama 52
Fox News Poll - 10/8 thru 10/9 - 900 RV - McCain 39 - Obama 46
Gallup Tracking - 10/7 thru 10/9 - 2784 RV - McCain 41 - Obama 51
Hotline/FD Tracking - 10/7 thru 10/9 - 838 LV - McCain 41 - Obama 48
Rasmussen Tracking - 10/7 thru 10/9 - 3000 LV - McCain 45 - Obama 50
GW/Battleground - 10/6 thru 10/9 - 800 LV - McCain 43 - Obama 51
Reuters/C-Span/Zogby - 10/7 thru 10/9 - 1203 LV - McCain 43 - Obama 48

Current average - McCain 41.86 - Obama 49.43 - Net + 7.57 Obama
Week 4 average - McCain 43.50 - Obama 49.50 - Net + 6.00 Obama
Week 3 average - McCain 42.80 - Obama 48.20 - Net + 5.40 Obama
Week 2 average - McCain 45.33 - Obama 47.33 - Net + 2.00 Obama
Week 1 average - McCain 46.50 - Obama 45.25 – Net + 1.25 McCain

Friday, October 3, 2008

McCain v Obama polling part 4

The current week being surveyed is September 29nd through October 3rd.

Gallup Tracking - 10/1 thru 10/3 - 2703 RV - McCain 42 - Obama 50
Hotline/FD Tracking - 10/1 thru 10/3 - 915 LV - McCain 41 - Obama 48
Rasmussen Tracking - 10/1 thru 10/3 - 3000 LV - McCain 45 - Obama 51
GW/Battleground - 9/29 thru 10/2 - 800 LV - McCain 46 - Obama 49

Current average - McCain 43.50 - Obama 49.50 - Net + 6.00 Obama
Week 3 average - McCain 42.80 - Obama 48.20 - Net + 5.40 Obama
Week 2 average - McCain 45.33 - Obama 47.33 - Net + 2.00 Obama
Week 1 average - McCain 46.50 - Obama 45.25 – Net + 1.25 McCain